Based on current delegate counts and poll numbers Ted Cruz will be mathematically unable to reach the delegate count required for him to win the Republican Presidential nomination.
Donald Trump still leads Cruz by over 200 delegates.
Even after Wisconsin Ted Cruz will not have enough delegates to win the election and will be out of the race by April 26th.
By the end April it will be clear that Ted Cruz has no chance of reaching the 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination.
Actually, in only 3 weeks, on April 26th, it will be clear that Ted Cruz cannot win.
This is in part because New York is leaning heavily towards Trump who leads according to polls listed at Real Clear Politics by as much as 36%. New York has a Republican primary where the delegates are split proportionally. So even if Cruz wins a third of the delegates, it won’t be enough. This is because come April 26th, there are five Republican Presidential primaries and three of these are winner take all (WTA). All three of these states are in the East where polls show Trump leading (Maryland and Pennsylvania) or there is no polling available with the state highly likely leaning towards Trump (Delaware).
Even if Cruz wins a third of the delegates in Rhode Island or Connecticut or any of these states, it will not be enough to keep him mathematically in the race.
Based on current numbers, come April 26th, Cruz will need 640 delegates to win the election but only 621 will be available.
Then Cruz’s only chance at the end of April to win the election is the highly unlikely scenario where Trump doesn’t gain enough delegates to win the nomination outright and that the Republican elites in a contested convention support Cruz.
Even if there were a contested convention, it is unlikely that the elites would offer the Presidency to Cruz over some other establishment candidate. The only other scenario is that Cruz hangs on and takes the candidate delegates from Kasich and Rubio for example, and hopes this is enough to overtake Trump. This, too, is a far out strategy.
** Cruz may have a chance in picking up the RNC superdelegates but if these GOP party elites all vote for Cruz there will be a revolt to break up the party.
If Cruz hangs on and doesn’t concede to Trump at the end of April, like Kasich is currently doing, Cruz comes across as unrealistic, out of touch and a sore loser.
AUSTIN, Texas – Congressman Beto O’Rourke, a former mexican-emo-grunge-rocker who once got his band booked on an evangelical broadcast by pretending to be a new gospel band, needed a hefty upset to win his congressional seat six years ago will have to pull off an even bigger one to unseat powerful Sen. Ted Cruz. He used to play bass and sing in El Paso band, Foss, in the early 1990s.
Here’s a video that explains why he decided to get a day job. O’Rourke wouldn’t confirm that it was him, but anyone who has seen him around El Paso can see he is the one with orange beanie that is playing bass.
Considering what other garbage was out there at the time, I guess it could have been worse, check out more from the band’s MySpace account HERE if you like
A 44-year-old Democrat from the remote West Texas city of El Paso, has advocated for legalizing marijuana and preaches tolerance on the U.S.-Mexico border in massive defiance of President Donald Trump’s “Build that wall” mantra.
The third-term congressman and fluent Spanish speaker is the kind of rising political star Democrats hope can help begin turning deep red Texas blue, aided by a booming Hispanic population and state politics pushed even farther right by Trump and Cruz.
“The Trump factor. He’s the gift that keeps on giving to Democrats in Texas,” said the state’s Democratic Party Chairman Gilberto Hinojosa. “It’s energizing the base and changing the whole dynamics of electoral politics here, and that’s what these two guys see.”
It’s hard to imagine any Democrat taking Texas by storm, much less toppling Cruz, who added to his national stature running for president while remaining popular in most GOP circles back home. A Democrat hasn’t won statewide office in Texas in 23 years, the nation’s longest losing streak by a political party.
Still, O’Rourke insists Cruz is beatable and there are some positive signs for Democrats, who in November swept down-ballot races in Harris County, which includes Houston and made notable gains in other fast-growing areas. Trump still beat Hillary Clinton in Texas by 9 percentage points — but that was the first time a Republican didn’t carry the state by double digits since 1996.
Overall only 39% of voters in the state approve of the job Cruz is doing, to 48% who disapprove. It was already clear from national polling that Donald Trump had come out ahead in his feud at the GOP convention with Cruz, but we find that even in Texas 52% of Republicans now say that they prefer Trump as their nominee this year to only 38% who would go with Cruz.
When asked about the Trump Administration, O’Rourke said, “I’m very concerned by some of his nominees. Jeff Sessions is a perfect example of someone who in every way is opposed to the promise that immigration and communities like El Paso and Texas hold for the rest of the country.”
“One thing I’ve learned is that very rarely does the moral argument, which is the compelling one for me, persuade anybody. So I try to make the strongest economic argument that immigration is in America’s self-interest. Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals beneficiaries, for example, will earn $4 trillion in taxable income over their lifetimes, and I’ve looked at what it would cost to deport them and what it would do to our economy should we lose them.”
“Those are things hopefully I can get Republicans to pay attention to. No state would be hurt more than Texas should we take a draconian turn on immigration enforcement, and it’s hard to imagine a more draconian turn than what we saw during the Obama administration, which deported more people than any previous administration.”
“The opinions of Texans show the extent to which a number of progressive policy goals have reached incredibly mainstream popularity, even in a state as traditionally conservative as Texas.”
• 89% of voters in the state support background checks on all gun purchases, to only 7% who oppose them. They’re supported by 94% of Democrats, 91% of Republicans, and 80% of independents.
Texas is becoming freakishly liberal:
• 83% of voters in the state support barring those on the Terror Watch List from buying guns, to only 10% who are opposed. That’s supported by 85% of Republicans, and 82% of both Democrats and independents.
• Voters in the state support an assault weapons ban, 48/43. That’s because Democrats are far more unified in their support for one (70/21) than Republicans are in their opposition to it (34/55).
• 72% of voters in the state support increasing the minimum wage to at least $10 an hour, compared to only 14% who think it’s fine where it is now, and 11% who would like to eliminate the minimum wage altogether. A minimum wage hike to at least $10 gets support from 94% of Democrats, 74% of independents, and 53% of Republicans.
There was widespread speculation Cruz could face a GOP primary challenge for being slow to endorse Trump last fall — but much of that has faded since Cruz has become a vocal supporter of Trump after November. Cruz spokeswoman Catherine Frazier declined to comment on O’Rourke’s entering the 2018 Senate race.
One way or the other, hopefully the other, let’s just hope he keeps his day job!
Sources: beto o’rourke rocker – Google Search
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