1237 For Cruz Mathematically Impossible, But Trump Needs Big Win In NY To Stop Brokered Convention


Although Texas Senator Ted Cruz won a resounding victory in last night’s Wisconsin Primary, author Joe Hoft says that the Texas Senator will be knocked out of the primary by April 26.

Even with the addition of delegates from WI, it’s still mathematically impossible for Cruz to secure the the nomination before a brokered RNC convention in Cleveland, Ohio.

There are only 769 delegates remaining, and the next contest is on Trump’s home turf: New York. New York, with a large population has 95 delegates, which is winner-take-all if one candidate gets 50% plus 1 vote.

If Trump wins New York, he will lead with 853 delegates, and Cruz will not be able to make it to 1,237.

Why is that? Because Cruz would NEED 732 delegates, and there will only be 674 obtainable before the convention!

That’s why New York is far more important than Wisconsin, which is why so much focus will now shift toward New York.
From The Gateway Pundit:

Based on current delegate counts and poll numbers Ted Cruz will be mathematically unable to reach the delegate count required for him to win the Republican Presidential nomination.

Donald Trump still leads Cruz by over 200 delegates.

cruz delegates trump

Even after Wisconsin Ted Cruz will not have enough delegates to win the election and will be out of the race by April 26th.

By the end April it will be clear that Ted Cruz has no chance of reaching the 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination.

Actually, in only 3 weeks, on April 26th, it will be clear that Ted Cruz cannot win.

This is in part because New York is leaning heavily towards Trump who leads according to polls listed at Real Clear Politics by as much as 36%. New York has a Republican primary where the delegates are split proportionally. So even if Cruz wins a third of the delegates, it won’t be enough. This is because come April 26th, there are five Republican Presidential primaries and three of these are winner take all (WTA). All three of these states are in the East where polls show Trump leading (Maryland and Pennsylvania) or there is no polling available with the state highly likely leaning towards Trump (Delaware).

Even if Cruz wins a third of the delegates in Rhode Island or Connecticut or any of these states, it will not be enough to keep him mathematically in the race.

Based on current numbers, come April 26th, Cruz will need 640 delegates to win the election but only 621 will be available.

Then Cruz’s only chance at the end of April to win the election is the highly unlikely scenario where Trump doesn’t gain enough delegates to win the nomination outright and that the Republican elites in a contested convention support Cruz.

Even if there were a contested convention, it is unlikely that the elites would offer the Presidency to Cruz over some other establishment candidate. The only other scenario is that Cruz hangs on and takes the candidate delegates from Kasich and Rubio for example, and hopes this is enough to overtake Trump. This, too, is a far out strategy.

** Cruz may have a chance in picking up the RNC superdelegates but if these GOP party elites all vote for Cruz there will be a revolt to break up the party.

If Cruz hangs on and doesn’t concede to Trump at the end of April, like Kasich is currently doing, Cruz comes across as unrealistic, out of touch and a sore loser.

After the Wisconsin call, Trump’s campaign issued a statement via Hope Hicks, his communications manager, shortly before 10 p.m. Central time. Trump, who did not congratulate Cruz, believes he’s been maligned.

“Lyin’ Ted Cruz had the Governor of Wisconsin, many conservative talk radio show hosts, and the entire party apparatus behind him,” the statement read. “Ted Cruz is worse than a puppet — he’s a Trojan horse being used by the party bosses attempting to steal the nomination from Mr. Trump.”

More than $2 million was spent on ads trouncing Trump by various groups, according to NBC, with the Cruz campaign and Cruz backers ponying up $1.4 million. Trump spent less than one-fourth that total on his ads.

CNN’s exit polling shows that 53 percent of GOP primary voters say they are angry with the government and 32 percent expressed dissatisfaction with the government. And while that may seem high, it’s actually lower compared to earlier primary states.

And that may be why Trump’s message did not resonate here as much as it has in other states.

Tuesday night’s results signal a shift in the campaign that makes it possible that no candidate will arrive at the GOP convention in Cleveland with the necessary delegates to secure the nomination. Some GOP insiders even believe a scenario could play out in a floor fight that sees U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan of Wisconsin emerging as the Republican nominee.

How Cruz fares in New York, Indiana, South Dakota, Montana, Wyoming and New Mexico down the line will determine how much momentum he brings into the convention.

A full Trump turnout could secure things for Trump, who has an overwhelming lead there, but it expected that as voter participation has been going that Cruz will get a good share of the delegates.

The next big test in stopping Trump will be New York, the state he calls home. A Monmouth University poll of New York Republicans released on Monday showed Trump with 52 percent of the state’s support, a huge lead over Kasich at 25 percent, and Cruz at 17 percent ahead of the state’s April 19 primary.

Trump needs a bigger win there.

Trump held a rally in Bethpage, New York, on Wednesday evening where he referred only obliquely to his Wisconsin loss, saying it “takes guts” to run for president and criticizing Cruz for drawing small crowds in the state.

The Trump campaign also announced members of its New York-based team, including party leaders in each of the state’s 27 congressional districts.

“It’s very important for Trump to bounce back strong in New York. The sense of his inevitability is one of his strengths,” said David Yepsen, director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Center at Southern Illinois University.

Do you agree with this analysis that Cruz’s campaign is essentially over, even though he won Wisconsin, and should drop out? Share your thoughts below!

Source: Elections Expert

2 comments

  1. Betty Hunter · April 6, 2016

    Yes, I believe Cruz should drop out if he doesn’t get the delegates in New York. I am asking myself who would vote for Cruz in New York after the statement he made on one of the debates? Either way he’s not going to drop out because he’s a sore loser, wait and see. He’s a Bible thumper who hides behind God’s word. He’s weird too.

    Like

  2. seabrznsun · April 7, 2016

    Should he? Yes, for all the above reasons. Will he? No, as the GOP needs him to assure a brokered convention so, if they get thier way, they can “choose” the nominee.

    Like

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