Although Texas Senator Ted Cruz won a resounding victory in last night’s Wisconsin Primary, author Joe Hoft says that the Texas Senator will be knocked out of the primary by April 26.
Even with the addition of delegates from WI, it’s still mathematically impossible for Cruz to secure the the nomination before a brokered RNC convention in Cleveland, Ohio.
There are only 769 delegates remaining, and the next contest is on Trump’s home turf: New York. New York, with a large population has 95 delegates, which is winner-take-all if one candidate gets 50% plus 1 vote.
If Trump wins New York, he will lead with 853 delegates, and Cruz will not be able to make it to 1,237.
Why is that? Because Cruz would NEED 732 delegates, and there will only be 674 obtainable before the convention!
That’s why New York is far more important than Wisconsin, which is why so much focus will now shift toward New York.
From The Gateway Pundit:
Based on current delegate counts and poll numbers Ted Cruz will be mathematically unable to reach the delegate count required for him to win the Republican Presidential nomination.
Donald Trump still leads Cruz by over 200 delegates.
Even after Wisconsin Ted Cruz will not have enough delegates to win the election and will be out of the race by April 26th.
By the end April it will be clear that Ted Cruz has no chance of reaching the 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination.
Actually, in only 3 weeks, on April 26th, it will be clear that Ted Cruz cannot win.
This is in part because New York is leaning heavily towards Trump who leads according to polls listed at Real Clear Politics by as much as 36%. New York has a Republican primary where the delegates are split proportionally. So even if Cruz wins a third of the delegates, it won’t be enough. This is because come April 26th, there are five Republican Presidential primaries and three of these are winner take all (WTA). All three of these states are in the East where polls show Trump leading (Maryland and Pennsylvania) or there is no polling available with the state highly likely leaning towards Trump (Delaware).
Even if Cruz wins a third of the delegates in Rhode Island or Connecticut or any of these states, it will not be enough to keep him mathematically in the race.
Based on current numbers, come April 26th, Cruz will need 640 delegates to win the election but only 621 will be available.
Then Cruz’s only chance at the end of April to win the election is the highly unlikely scenario where Trump doesn’t gain enough delegates to win the nomination outright and that the Republican elites in a contested convention support Cruz.
Even if there were a contested convention, it is unlikely that the elites would offer the Presidency to Cruz over some other establishment candidate. The only other scenario is that Cruz hangs on and takes the candidate delegates from Kasich and Rubio for example, and hopes this is enough to overtake Trump. This, too, is a far out strategy.
** Cruz may have a chance in picking up the RNC superdelegates but if these GOP party elites all vote for Cruz there will be a revolt to break up the party.
If Cruz hangs on and doesn’t concede to Trump at the end of April, like Kasich is currently doing, Cruz comes across as unrealistic, out of touch and a sore loser.
Source: Elections Expert